Things You Need to Know about the North Korea H-bomb Test
The North Korea leader Kim Jong-un celebrated the New Year of 2016 with the blast of a big “Firework”, the H-bomb test. After the test, Kim declared that the test “targets the United States directly.” Unlike the previous nuclear tests, this was the test on Hydrogen Bomb, the most destructive weapon in the Nuke family. This test was also the first test on H-bomb since 1996. Before we start worrying about the madman of Pyongyang’s attempt to destroy the world, there are something else we should think about.
First of First, what kind of H-bomb was that? Or was it even an H-bomb?
According to multiple sources from China, Russia, and South Korea, this nuclear test caused 3.6 magnitude earthquake under Richter Magnitude. After calculation of the earthquake, the yield of this H-bomb is about 18kt to 20kt.
So what does this number means?20kt was the largest yield of the previous North Korean nuclear test. 20kt is also smaller than Fatman, the bomb we dropped at Nagasaki at the end of the World War II.
Before North Korea’s H-bomb test, five states tested H-bomb, they are the United States, Soviet Union, China, Britain, and France. The yield of Britain’s first H-bomb test was 200kt; France was 2.6mt, China was 3.3mt. The United States and the Soviet Union led the way with 10.4mt and 16mt.
The first H-bomb tests by previous 5 states are at least 10 times larger than the North Korea H-bomb test. The data showed that the bomb tested by North Korea is too small to be an H-bomb.
Despite the fact that North Korea didn’t have any H-bomb, North Korea is still the 9th country, after the US, USSR, Britain, China, France, India, Pakistan, and Israel, owns the nuclear weapon. However, since the Nuclear Bomb can’t fly by itself, owning Nuclear Weapon doesn’t make North Korea a threat to the United States, the threat comes from the projectile ability of North Korea. North Korea’s nuclear bomb projectile ability comes from its Air Force and missiles.
The Projectile Ability of North Korean Military
Only Il-28 and Su-25 from North Korea air force can deliver the nuclear bomb, but Il-28 designed in the 1940s and Su-25 was designed in 1960s. The chance of these cold war planes survives 2016 air defense system is nearly zero without air supremacy. However, the chance for North Korea air force, with their Mig-21s and a few Mig-29s, winning air supremacy, against F15, F16, and F35, in East Asia is also nearly zero.
Since threat from Air Force is out of the picture, the only threat from North Korea is its missiles. Taepodong-2 is the only type of ballistic missile owns by North Korea can target the United States. Current Taepodong-2 has a range of 6000km and can target Alaska and Hawaii, the revised version has a range of 9000km and can target the West Coast.
Before my friends from Alaska, Hawaii and West Coast start practicing Duck and Covering, they need to know that the Taepodong-2 missile is not reliable at all. Taepodong-2 was based on the Soviet and Chinese technologies from the 1970s. It is easily detectable and it won’t pass the anti-missile system used by the United States in East Asia since the system is designed for the more modern and powerful Chinese and Russian missiles. Also, the previous 4 tests of the Taepodong-2 missile were failures. North Korea still doesn’t master the multistage rocket technology yet and Taepodong-2 is still far from surviving in actual war.
How Does The Test Impact on East Asia Geopolitics?
The North Korea’s nuclear test was a crisis that threat the peace of the North East Asia. However, it contains the opportunity for American’s East Asian Strategy. The nuclear test didn’t hurt the U.S. — North Korea relationship that much since the relationship is already really bad. However, it increased the distrust and tension between North Korea and its biggest support, China.
Since Deng’s era, the comrade and fraternal friendship between China and North Korea already disappeared. North Korea was especially angry when China established the normal diplomatic relationship with South Korea in the early 1990s. The current China and North Korea relationship build on a mutual need: China doesn’t want US force on its border and North Korea needs China to survive.
However, as China emerge as a responsible major state in East Asia, North Korea became the troublemaker for China. The escaped soldiers from North Korea harassed the China-North Korea border. China also doesn’t want to be dragged into another Korean War by North Korea. North Korea also doesn’t trust China. In 2015, when North Korea conflicted with South Korea, North Korea openly rejected China’s statement of calming down for both sides. This was a clear sign that North Korea tries to push for independent foreign policy. The nuclear test this time also marked the change of attitude from China toward North Korea. Unlike previous nuclear tests, this time, China openly condemned North Korea. This is a sign of open crack between China and North Korea.
The United States will benefit from the conflict between China, the target of American East Asia strategy, and North Korea, the biggest threat in East Asia. First, North Korea’s misbehavior will make it lose supports of China. China tolerates North Korea in order to repel the border threat from the United States; however, China won’t tolerate North Korea if North Korea itself have more threat to China than the United States. Without the support of China, North Korea won’t survive long unless it opens to the outside world. However, openness will bring western political thought and end Kim’s family’s domination of ideology. The dissatisfied people will destroy the family rule in North Korea and the Kim family will fall like those authoritarian rulers of Soviet Blog in 1989.
