The Rising Dragon: Looking at China’s Expansion in a Historical Perspective

China has been a power of expansion. When China reached a peak in term of power, it was tended to expand directly through military conquest and indirectly through establishing and maintaining the Sino-Centric tributary system. This theory was best illustrated by this history of Han, Tang and Ming dynasties. China today, with the rise of military and economic power, also pushes for expansion of its power and influence. The expansion China pushes today has parallel characters with the indirect way of historical Chinese expansions. By comparing China’s historical behaviors and today’s policies, we can understand the goal of China’s expansion, thus, proper policies can be applied.

The Expansion of China in the Past

After the short-lived Qin Dynasty, Liu Bang defeated his enemy Xiang Yu and established Han dynasty. At the beginning, Han suffered constant attacks and harasses from the Xiongnu tribes lived in the northern steppe. Liu Bang attempted to deter the Hun’s invasion but failed badly. His force was destroyed at the Battle of Baideng and he was forced to conclude treaties that favored the Xiongnu. The treaty included a gift to Xiongnu and marriage between Han’s princesses and Chanyu of the Xiongnu. Domestically, Han suffered political instabilities and eventually the Rebellion of Seven States in 154BC. After setting the internal and external threats, Han enjoyed fast growth. The standard of living of Chinese achieved a new height, and the central government enjoyed both huge revenue and budget surplus. When the emperor Wu Di (means the warrior emperor) took the throne, the power of Han reached to peak. Wu Di revoked the appeasement policies toward Huns his father and grandfather used. He pushed for active military campaigns to weaken the Hun empire and open a trade road from Han to central Asia. Under General Wei Qing and Huo Qubing, Han defeated the Huns’ army in several decisive battles and caused the cleavage of Huns into two factions. The Han force also pushed westward and establish four important cities, Wuwei, Tianshui, Zhangye and Dunhuang, in order to secure the Han’s control over the west. The conquest of the west allowed Han to establish the Silk Road.

Wu Di also sent diplomat Zhang Qian to the west. His most important mission was to make an alliance with Wusun, the most powerful nomadic kingdom in central Asia. This mission was design to reduce the influence of Xiongnu in Central Asia significantly, thus “cut off Xiongnu’s right arm”. When Zhang arrived Wusun, Wusun was at the edge of civil war. Different sons of the old king struggle for the title of successor. Zhang took the advantage. He presented a gift and showed the military power of Han Empire. Zhang Qian successfully established the Han-Wusun alliance by through marriage. The Han-Wusun alliance successfully eliminated the influence of Xiongnu in the Central Asia. Wusun also actively participated in Han’s campaign against Xiongnu. Zhang’s diplomatic mission, along with Han’s supreme military power, allowed Han to exercise control and influence in the Central Asia and protected Han’s interest of Silk Road. Han also started the tributary system in Central Asian, a system that will last for almost two thousand years.

After the Han fell in 221AD, China was divided for almost 4 centuries. The Sui dynasty ended the division. However, Sui, just like the first dynasty that achieves “Grand Unity”, Qin, was short lived due to internal rebellion. Li Yuan, one of the warlord, defeated other Anti-Sui rebels and warlords and established Tang Dynasty. His Second Son, Li Shimin, conducted a coup, killed his brothers and forced his father to resign in 626AD, and became the emperor Tai Zong. Tang Dynasty faced the external threat of Turkish Empire. The Turks was the major power in the north and west of China and controlled the steppe. In 583, Sui Dynasty defeated Turkish force in a major battle and cause the split of Turkish empire to East Turkish Empire and West Turkish Empire. In 626 AD, just after the Tai Zong’s coup, the Turk’s force invaded Tang and advanced to Jingyang, a town only 20 kilometers away from the capital, Chang’an. Tai Zong was forced to conduct the Treaty of Weishui. Just like the Treaty of Baideng between Han and Xiongnu, the treaties of Weishui promised alliance with Turks and paid Turks massive amount of gold and silk as “gifts”. After the invasion of Turks, Tai Zong consolidates his power and pushed for domestic policies such as tax reduction in order to promote the growth of Chinese economy. The power of Tang increased significantly under his rule. Tai Zong was also a brilliant military commander, he was the most important commander of Li Yuan during the war that unified All Under the Heaven. He reformed the military system and prepared for war against Turks. In 3 years, Tang built a reliable army against Turks and economy power to finance the war. During the same time, there was a power struggle inside the East Turkish empire between two factions. Tang used this chance and launch an attack on East Turks in 629. In 630, Tang won the deceive Battle of Yinshan and captured the Khan of Turks, Khan Jili. The battle of Yinshan marked the end of East Turkish Empire. Tang established Protectorate General of Pacifying North in order to control the vast steppe. After the War against East Turks, Tang turned its attention to the West. Tang attacked West Turks constantly and forced West Turks to surround in 646AD. However, after the death of Tai Zong, West Turks rebelled three times against Tang under Ashina Helu, the Khan of West Turks. Tang defeated West Turks three times and finally in 657AD, Tang decided to exercise direct rule on lands of West Turks and established Protectorate General of Pacifying West. Tang’s war against Turks allowed Tang to eliminated the biggest external threat and established control over north and west border regions. Tang also pushed its force and influence into Central Asia and secured Tang’s control over silk road.

The Mongols conquered China and ruled for less a century. However, in the mid-14th century, their cruel regime could not hold under peasant rebellions. Zhu Yuanzhang, the peasant rebellion leader, defeated other peasant rebellion leaders and the Mongols and established a new dynasty, the Ming Dynasty. Zhu Yuanzhang became the Tai Zu( first emperor). Under Tai Zu’s rule, Ming recovered from the war. And Ming’s force constantly defeated the Mongols and pushed them further north. After the death of Tai Zu, his grandson, Zhu Yunwen became the emperor Hui Zong. However, his uncle, Zhu Di, fourth son of Tai Zu, rebelled and defeated Hui Zong in four years of Jingnan Rebellion and took the throne. He became the Emperor Cheng Zu. Cheng Zu consolidated his power and moved the capital from Nanjing to Beijing. He launched 5 assaults on Mongolian tribes and kept Mongols weak and unable to harass Ming’s border. In the west, Ming brought Moghul Khanate into the tributary system and secured Ming’s access to the Silk Road. Moghul Khanate also acted as a buffer state between Ming and the rising Timurid Empire and secured Ming’s western frontier from direct assaults of Timur’s force. In the South, the military coup took place in Vietnam, a new king took power and killed the old ruling family. Cheng Zu sent the military to intervene under the name of “restoring legitimacy.” The first intervention was defeated by Vietnam’s force. The second, and much larger, intervention defeated the Vietnam force. The new king was captured and killed, and Vietnam became part of Ming until the 16th century.

Ming Dynasty also pushed for expansion in the Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean. The attempt is best represented by Zheng He’s voyages. Zheng He was a Chinese Muslim and a served for Zhu Di since his youth. Unlike other Zhu Di’s officials and servants, he knew navigation knowledge. He became the top commander of the massive fleet that travels in the Indian Ocean for seven times. Zheng He’s voyage has deep political and economic meaning for the Ming Dynasty. Zheng He’s fleet has the similar impact to the Nanyang states as the Great White Fleet of the United States centuries later to the Latin American states. States from Southeast Asia, India, Middle East and even Africa was amazed by this powerful fleet and joined the Sino-centric tribute system, thus expanded the sphere of influence of Ming Dynasty oversea. Zheng’s fleet, with supreme military power and advanced weapons, became the policeman of India Ocean. Zheng moderated the civil war in Java, defeated the anti-Ming Sumatra King and established a pro-Ming King in Sumatra, and defeated pirates in the South China Sea. He also helped the expansion of the oversea Chinese settlements in Southeast Asia. Zheng He also supported the small city-state of Malacca. Malacca remained under Chinese influence until the arrive of Portuguese about 150 years later. Zheng He’s voyages performed common good such as defeating the pirates, promoted maritime trade between China (although limited and regulated by the central government) and the Indian Ocean States and expanded the sphere of influence of Ming to the Indian Ocean. He also created an economic and political system in South China sea and the Indian Ocean that favored oversea Chinese merchants.

The previous three examples show the pattern of China’s expansions. China expands westward on the land and southward on the sea. This pattern is closely related to the geography of China. The North of China is Gobi Desert and Steppe-land and Southeast of China are the Tibetan Plateau. Both landmasses blocked China’s path to west and India. Thus, Central Asia is the only way China can connect to outside civilizations through the land. After the 8th century, with improvements on Chinese ship-making and navigation techniques, the Southeast maritime trade also flourished and opened another path to the outside world. The number of oversea Chinese in Southeast Asia increased significantly, especially after the conquest of Mongols. The Chinese merchant controlled the maritime trade in the South China Sea and established settlements. Goods exchange between China, India, and the Middle East occurred through maritime trade. By exerting influence on central Asia and the South China Sea, China secured the land and maritime Silk Road, thus secured the trade and connection with outside world.
The Sino-centric tributary System allowed China to exert influence in Asia. China was, by far, the most powerful and richest country during centuries in Han, Tang, and Ming dynasties. The states near China pay tributes to China in exchange for China’s “gifts”. These gifts are usually much more generous than the tributes received by China. By paying tributes to China, these states also enjoyed the right of trading with China. China also Ce Feng tributary states, an action that the court and emperor acknowledged the states’ sovereignty in exchange for tributary states’ allegiance. Tributary states enhance their legitimacy and receive protection by China through Ce Feng, in exchange, they fought against China’s enemies. China used Tributary states in Central Asia to counter the attack of Xiongnu, Turks and Mongols. China also exerts political influence on the internal affair of tributary states. By refusing Ce Feng, China could denounce the legitimacy to a tributary state. China also actively sent military forces to pursuit change of rulers that were not favored by Imperial China. The tributary System also allowed Chinese culture to enter the tributary states. These states, especially states geographically close to China, established Chinese-type court and government and followed the Confucian way of ruling. Chinese art and literature also shaped the development of their own culture. In general, the Sino-centric tributary system allowed China to manage its sphere of influence, and China actively used the military to control and expand its tributary system.

The ancient Sino-centric system is not entirely “ancient”. It has features of the modern idea of the sphere of influence. The tributary system guided the diplomacy of the Middle Kingdoms and its peripheries. China didn’t exert great influence solely base on military supremacy and took absolute command on the domestic policies of its tributes. The relationship between China and its tributes was guided by vague, but de facto existed rules. These rules were understood by both sides. Here are some rules, the rules are never spoken or written by either side, but both sides act accordingly:
Rules and rights for tributaries
— -Peace with China
— -Military alliance against Chinese enemies, typically northern nomads. (This typically applied to China’s Central Asia policies)
— -Tribute and show submission by tributary states.
— -Keep the legitimacy, because Chinese emperors can take them away
— -Trade with China
— -Send students to China
Rules and rights of The Middle Kingdom
— -Military protection of tributaries
— -Ce Feng tributaries
— -Send gifts to tributaries
— -Trade with tributaries
— -Intervention when necessary
These rules were based on China’s military power. When China was strong, all of these “rules” would be implemented. When China was weak, few, or none, of these rules would be effective.

The relationship between China and tributaries didn’t go outside of these broad rules. These rules were vague, thus left spaces for interpretation for both China and its tributes. Unlike the command features in European colonial system, Chinese tributary system gave a great amount of freedom on domestic and diplomacy power to tributary states. When China acted on its tributaries, such as taking away the Ce Feng or military intervention, Chinese Emperor justified such actions with the words “following the Heaven(Tian)’s will”. The “Heaven’s will” are refer to these broad rules.

Unlike western colonialism and imperialism, which tried to maximize economic profits for the mother country. The goal of ancient China’s inter-states policies was to maintain the peace of the China Proper. The tributary system was necessary to pacify border states. The goal of large military conquests in Chinese history (Such as war against Xiongnu, Turkish Empire, and Mongols) was to pacify the strong northern neighbors and bring them to submission. Chinese dynasties never ruled the remote land of Inner Asia, Manchuria and Mongolia directly, they used local leaders and ethnic minority military generals to exercise political power.

The sino-centric tributary system was maintained through military power. The system was strong when the military power of China was strong. When China lost the Sino-Japanese War in 1895, the system finally collapsed and the center of Asia transferred from China to Japan.

China’s Expansion today

Recent China’s actions also reflected China’s centuries-old expansion. China has been promoting the slogan “Achieve the Great Revival of China” since 1997. The “Great Revival” in foreign policy field implies China’s attempt to restore its position as regional hegemony. China tries to exert influence on Central Asia and the Middle East in order to access oil and other resources. China also tries to control South China Sea, Malacca and exerts influence in India Ocean in order to create a beneficial environment favors China’s trade. The “Great Revival of China” represents the China’s goal to rebuild the centuries old Sino-centric system in Asia.

China’s “Great Revival” is through establishing regional institutions in Asia. The China established regional institution includes Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), One Belt One Road(OBOR), and Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank(AIIB). China uses this institution to exert influence among Asian states.

Shanghai Cooperation Organization is a Chinese formed regional organization with Russia, 4 “stans” of Central Asia and newly admitted members of Pakistan and India. Shanghai Cooperation reduced tariffs among membership states and each membership countries enjoy most favorable nation status among each other. SCO also encourage cooperation in education, research, environmental protection and international justice among membership states.

SCO is also a quasi-military alliance. It is an anti-terrorism organization in central Asia. It has an anti-terrorist command center located in Tashkent, Uzbekistan. The Shanghai Communique, signed by membership countries, defined and targeted terrorism, extremism, and separatism in Central Asia. It also set the direction and rules of the anti-terrorism struggle for each membership countries. SCO also had 12 military exercises among membership states targeting terrorist groups, and these exercises increased the military cooperation among each state.

China has a huge influence over SCO members in both economic and military matters. The most favorable nation status China gained through SCO effectively allowed the Chinese capitals and investments entered the membership countries, especially the resource-rich Central Asia states.
PetroChina, the biggest state-owned oil, and gas company, received the right to exploit oil in Kazakhstan. PetroChina owns oil field that produces 30 million tons of Petroleum annually. PetroChina also built China-Kazakhstan Old Pipe, which sends 10 million tons of Petroleum to China every year.
Chinese goods also entered the market of central Asia. The most favorable nation status give the Chinese goods great advantage in market competition. Now, Chinese goods hold a great amount of market share in light industry field and electronic field.

China also exerts military influence among central Asia states. China cooperated with them in order to attack terrorist and separatist groups that located in central Asia. China also sold weapons to central Asia states and influences the military decision of these states through SCO. China and SCO members signed to a jointed declaration to urge the US to close its military bases in Kazakhstan. Given the traditional involvements of China in central Asia, China uses SCO to increase its political influence and maximize its economic profits in central Asia. Thus, China gains access to the Middle East through central Asia states. Chinese influence over central Asia also secures the establishment of One Belt One Road plan.

One Belt One Road plan was proposed by Xi Jinping, the President of PRC, in 2013. The “One Belt” means the Silk Road economic belt. It starts in Xi’an China, the old imperial capital of Han and Tang Dynasty, goes through Central Asia, middle east, Russia and reaches Europe. The “One Road” is the “maritime silk road”. It starts in Fuzhou, a Southern China port where Zheng He started his voyages, goes through South China Sea, Malacca, India, diverges to East Africa, and reaches to Europe through the Red Sea.

As the historical examples show above, China has a strong tradition to protect the Silk Road. Both land Silk Road and Maritime Silk Road not only establish economic ties between China and other States, but China also spreads its influence and exerts political influence toward states as well.

China tries to secure the access of resources in Central Asia and the Middle East through OBOR and build stronger economic ties with Central Asia and Middle East states. The Maritime Silk Road ensures China’s access to Malacca Strait and the Indian Ocean. China also attempts to increase its influence in Southeast Asia and India Ocean thus brings the South China Sea and Southeast Asia under the China’s sphere of influence.

OBOR also serves as China’s Marshall Plan. Under the OBOR plan, China increases trade and investments to these membership countries, thus increases China’s political and economic influence over these states. China experienced a long period of fast economic growth, but recent years show the pace of economic growth is declining. The inflation in China in past 5 years weakened the domestic market. The OBOR plan allows Chinese investment to flow into membership states and stimulate the growth of the economy of these states. Economic growth in membership states increases the demand for Chinese goods. Thus, China opens the foreign market for its products and goods. Chinese industry is experiencing a transition from lower value products to high-tech, high-value products. Chinese companies, such as Gree, Haier, and Huawei, can access to foreign markets of OBOR states. It helps the growth of Chinese companies. China also increases its political influences through trade and investment.

China also attempts to restore the sino-centric system of Asia. During Mao’s era, China had the duty of assisting communist revolution groups. Mao regarded Beijing as the center of world Revolution. Although Chinese people suffered low standard of leaving, CCP assisted North Vietnam, Albania and Third World leftist countries and leftist military groups. By assisting worldwide communist movement, China built a strong reputation in Third World Countries. Leaders of Third World countries traveled to Beijing to see Mao, and Mao considered it as “tribute” of these countries.

Around 1985, China abandoned its assists to communist groups in order to fit into the existing world order. Today, China tries to establish a sino-centric system with another path, a “western” path of setting up institutions. Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank(AIIB) is an international financial institution proposed and lead by China. The main purpose of AIIB is to provide infrastructure investment to Asian countries through loans, direct investments, and other means. China exerts a huge influence over AIIB. The headquarter of AIIB also locates in Beijing and the president of AIIB is a Chinese. China holds 26% of the share of the AIIB stocks. The voting power of each country depends on the share of stock each country holds. Thus, China has more than a quarter of the vote in AIIB. With 15% voting power in World Bank, the United States can push for favorable policies. 26% voting power allows China to exert massive influence over the policies and rulemaking process of AIIB. China can set rules through AIIB and use binding investment in order to influence the domestic policies of membership states. AIIB promotes infrastructure building, and it creates a market for Chinese businesses. With AIIB, China can restore the sino-centric system in Asia and even achieve hegemony in Asia. It can also reduce the influence of the United States and Japan by reducing the influence of Word Bank, IMF and Asia Development Bank.

Possible American Policies

The historical example shows that the goal of China’s expansion is to achieve hegemony in Asia. It requires China to alter the current East Asia system and establish a new Sino-centric system. The current East Asia system is designed by the United States after World War II in order to maximize the American benefits. the U.S has been controlling and protecting East Asia system mainly through economic ties and military presence. China’s expansion will challenge the American’s dominating role in Asia.

A major war between China and the United States is largely off the table since neither side can afford the cost. China’s expansion and the change of system in Asia can be only done through power transition. Currently, the stage of competition between China and the United States is at China’s border seas. China tries to break the Island Chain imposed by the United States. The cost curve is bending in favor of China since projecting American force in Asia is extremely costly. The United States should not adopt an all-around aggressive containment against China, it is too expensive for American and likely to worsen the relationship with China. The United States should focus on the two directions of China’s expansion, the West in Central Asia and South in the South China Sea. The ultimate goal for American policies toward China is not stopping China from achieving “rich and power”; the goal is to pressure China to join the existing Asia System instead of starting a new one.

China and Russia traditionally exerts a great influence in Central Asia. Therefore, it is too hard for American to win over Central Asian states completely. However, the United States can increase influence through investments and military domination. The goals for American policy is neutrality of Central Asia States, rather than allowing these states lean to the Chinese side. The United States can achieve this through economic aid and military cooperation.

Recent diplomatic victory in Mongolia can serve as a great example. Mongolia is geographically close to China and Russia and under the influence of these two powerful states for a long period. During the Cold War era, Mongolia was considered as a “puppet state” of USSR. After the end of USSR, Mongolia developed a huge dependence on Chinese investments. American economic aids and military cooperation in recent years allowed Mongolia to use American influence to balance Chinese and Russian influence. Recently, Mongolia declared neutrality; American influences prevented Mongolia from leaning to Russia and China completely.

In the South China Sea, China has been actively pushing all states out of Nine-Dash lines. China dropped the soft-line policy of “Shelving the differences and seeking joint development” and takes hardline policies such as sea patrol and building islands. However, the hard-line policy in the South China Sea is harming China in the long run. It pushes Southeast Asian states away. The Sino-centric tributary system in Southeast Asia was based on friendship and mutual respect, not based on military threat. The core value of the Sino-centric tributary system is to absorb and accept states into this Chinese system instead of keeping everyone away. The United States can use hostility among South China Sea states against China. The United States can increase relationship with Southeast Asia countries, most importantly Vietnam, Philippine and Indonesia. Military cooperation with these states can drag these states to the American side. China’s increase of power and hardline policy threat these states. In order to counter the threat, they increase their own military power through purchasing American weapons and deeper cooperation with US military. This “Prison Dilemma” further entangles China into the South China Sea. Prolong entanglement will exhaust China’s military power and bend the cost curve in favor the United States.

Conclusion

From the Sino-centric tributary system in the past to the “New Order of Asia” in the present, China needs to absorb other states in the system. Keeping China’s neighbors away from the Chinese system undermine China’s expansion. China’s attempt to create a new system is backed up by its military power. The United States must keep enough military force to deter China. The cost of China’s policies to pursuit hegemony will be high but the real outcome will be low. This will pressure China to stop seeking expansion and hegemony and accept and join the current American system.