Chess Board of the South China Sea
Once again, South China Sea became a new international hotspot. This is the stage of the potential clashes between the United States and China, the two most influential powers of the world. Recent years, with the rise of Chinese naval power, Beijing has been pursuing hardline policies. The official party newspaper, People’s Daily, published an article that criticized “the peeping Uncle Sam” and claimed that the US Navy violated the sovereignty of China and harmed the “peaceful situation of the South China Sea” by collecting data and navigating within Chinese Special Economic Zone. Last year, one article published by Global Times declared that “Even President Obama doesn’t have the dare to declare war on China.” The military officials also said several times that China does not fear war with the United States, one officer even predicted that a war will inevitably break off between China and the United States in ten years.
China has a historical connection with Southeast Asia. Vietnam was part of China for 1000 years and China’s tributary state for another 1000 years. Other Southeast Asian states sent tributary missions to China for more than hundreds of years. Among the 45 million Chinese living oversea, 30 million live in Southeast Asia.
I had a chance to speak with the former Chinese ambassador to Thailand and Singapore, Mr. Zhang Jiuheng. He provided some unique views on the South China Sea problem.
There are two problems in the South China Sea disputes. The first problem is the island disputes between China and its neighbors. The second problem is the dispute over free navigation right between the United States and China.
American position
The America stands for the Free Right of Navigation of US Navy proposed by President Jimmy Carter. The United States believes that American ships have the right to sail and conduct investigations on any public water. The United States uses the Free Right of Navigation to justify the American naval investigations within China’s Special Economic Zone.
The United States also doesn’t recognize the artefactual islands. Recently, American naval ships sailed inside the 12 miles’ border water around some artefactual islands. The Chinese reacted strongly, accused these as invasion and even threatened to attack American ships.
Some famous international relation realists, such as Professor Mearsheimer, declared China’s action in the South China Sea is offensive realism using defensive approach. China wants to occupy the entire South China Sea by enclosing it and denies the access to other states. The goal of China, these realists believe, is to establish Southeast Asia as China’s sphere of influence and the South China Sea as the military buffer zone. China wants to influence the neighboring states just like the Uncle Sam controls Latin America and the Caribbean Sea. Former President Jimmy Carter accused China’s stands on South China Sea problem as “self-isolation”. He believes that such offensive policies threat the neighboring states. The South China Sea problem will inevitably destroy the friendship between China and Southeast Asia.
China’s stand
China practices aggressive policies, at least in western point of view, such as island building, the using of military force and the establishment of Sansha City.
China entered the South China Sea competition late. For a long time, China didn’t have the ability to project forces over the entire South China Sea. However, with the improvement of Chinese naval power and ability to project force, Beijing want to tip the balance of power of the South China Sea favoring China. China decides to make artefactual islands as military airports and military strongholds. Beijing also declared that the newly made islands are Chinese territories, thus enjoy the 12 miles of sea territory and 200 miles of Special Economic Zone.
With the rise of military power, China also uses military force more often in the island disputes. PLA navy has been sailing ships to dispute islands in order to claim sovereignty. Recently, Chinese and the American naval ships had several stand-offs in China’s Special Economic Zone. China also conducted inter-ballistic missile try-out launches, including the launching of DF-21, a missile can target American aircraft carrier, as strong warnings.
In 2013, Vietnam published a declaration that accused China and claimed several disputed islands. In order to protest Hanoi’s action, Beijing established Sansha City, a city includes three archipelagos China disputes with neighbors. By establishing Sansha city, Beijing makes governing these islands a daily norm and enhances China’s claim over them.
While talking with Ambassador Zhang, he said that the entire myth of self-isolation is created by the United States. South China Sea problem has always existed. However, it was not a big issue until the United States involves in. There is no self-isolation, there is only the United States isolating China.
US diplomat offense and China’s difficult choice
Traditionally, Southeast Asia serves and follows the big powers in order to benefit itself. Southeast Asian states paid tributes to the central kingdom for legitimacy and economic benefits before the European powers arrived. During the 19th century, Thailand danced between Britain and France in order to maintain independence. During the Cold War period, the worldwide competition of two camps divided Southeast Asia. In order to win loyalty and alliance in the region, both camps invested massive amounts of economic and military aids. After the fall of the Soviet Union, the United States became the sole great power that can influence Southeast Asia both politically and Economically. Southeast Asian states, even Vietnam, leaned to the United States.
China and Southeast Asian states enjoyed a fast development in diplomatic relations and economic cooperation since the 1980s, the so-called “20 years of golden age” by Ambassador Zhang. This is because of China’s rapid economic development and the increase of trade between China and the Southeast Asia. However, because of the increasing island disputes, the relationship between China and the Southeast Asian states is getting worse. Economically, China is the biggest trading partner with ASEAN. China and ASEAN also established bilateral trading and investing agreements. However, the South China sea disputes cause deep misunderstanding between both sides. During the 2015 ASEAN meeting in Yunnan, some ASEAN members, including the Philippines and Vietnam, condemned China’s aggression in the South China Sea. The United States also supports the internationalization the South China Sea problem; although according to Ambassador Zhang, the internationalization attempt itself is invalid. By internationalizing the problem, the United States wants to create an image of China “bullying” small neighbors and enhance the fear of China.
The South China Sea disputes provide a golden opportunity for the United States to penetrate influence into Southeast Asia. The United States should work with two hands. At one hand, the United States should avoid direct confrontation with China. At another hand, United States should influence Southeast Asia countries through economic partnership and political pressure.
Southeast Asia is a big market that America had not been paying attention until recent years. During the Cold War years, the economic tie between the United States and Southeast Asia was not nearly as strong as the political tie. In order to reconstruct Japan, the United States practiced the US-Japan-Southeast Asia policy and Southeast Asia became the market of Japan.
Building a strong economic partnership with Southeast Asia states will be mutually beneficial. The Southeast Asian states need investments for infrastructure. Millions of people in Southeast Asia live in an environment without adequate roads and stable electricity. China didn’t have the resource and desire to invest in the Southeast Asia until recently; China put investing neighbor states on its political agenda after the establishment of AIIB and One Belt One Road plan.
The increase of investment in Southeast Asia from the United States will be the second Marshall Plan. The Marshall Plan after World War II had the effects of deterring Communism, rebuilding European market and influencing Europe. The economic aids and investments in Southeast Asia will have the similar political and economic effects. The mass infrastructure building project will ignite the potential of the market. With the rise of the wage of Chinese workers, the Southeast Asia will become the next gold mine of cheap labors for American companies. Currently, most Southeast Asian states have pro-west and pro-US leadership. The economic growth caused by the investments enhances the pro-US governments and avoids the rise of radical anti-America political parties. The growing standard of living also leads to the growing demands for American goods. While Southeast Asian states might have disputes with China, the United States can use the economic partnership as a way to penetrate American influence.
Because each individual Southeast Asian states is small, and these states often have complicated relations with their neighbors, Southeast Asian states have the long history of maneuvering and using big powers. When two big ideological friendly powers present in the region, these states balance and dance between them. When only one great power presence, they ally with the sole power in order to preserve themselves. Thus, the only way to win the loyalty and supports of Southeast Asian state is to become the sole power in the region. China is closer to Southeast Asia and has strong historical connections, however, Beijing doesn’t have the ability to project military power throughout the region. Southeast Asian states become less willing to cooperate with China because of the recent disputes. China’s military actions spread fear among this neighborhood. This is the golden opportunity for the United States to step up and establish a strong military presence in the Southeast Asia. Lots of these Southeast Asian states, from Vietnam to Philippine, want to use the United States to balance China. They also viewed China, rather than the United States, as a direct threat. The Strong naval presence and joint military exercise can remain these states the American military power and build strong connections with their military. The Southeast Asian states have distorted civil-military relationships and the military has disproportion influence over the government. Thus, Stronger military ties also lead to stronger American influence.
The United States has a golden opportunity to influence Southeast Asia since China is losing political support because of the South China Sea dispute. Establishing a strong connection with Southeast Asian deters China’s attempt of pushing southward. The United States will also force China to make a difficult choice: either giving up the South China Sea for Southeast Asia or giving up Southeast Asia for the South China Sea.
